Comments on the Next Gen

Or should I say current gen? Whatever you want to call it, the recently released consoles from the Big 3 have all been out for at least 6 months. I think it's time I posted my thoughts.

Microsoft was the first to the party with the Xbox 360. Way back when, I said I thought MS would ultimately come out on top this round, with Nintendo second, and Sony solidly in third. For now, that's the way the worldwide sales shake out. I say for now because I don't expect that to last. Why? After all, Microsoft has everything going for them. They've got a powerful machine (not the most powerful, but a good balance between power and ease of programming), they were first to market, they had a strong lineup of launch/first gen titles, they've got a steady stream of second and third gen titles on the horizon, they've got the best online scheme, etc. Too bad in their rush to market they didn't actually build a quality box.

Ever since launch, 360's have been dying. By the hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions. What does MS have to say about that? Let's talk to Peter Moore: "Y'know, things break. (We) can't comment on failure rates, because it's just not something - it's a moving target." Uh huh. Moving target. Things break. You know what MS hasn't said? They haven't said that there's a serious problem with the build quality of the 360, and they haven't said that it's been fixed or when (if) it will be fixed. I don't know about anyone else, but if I'm going to pay $400 for something, I expect it to work. 360's don't. So while there may have been 10 million of them sold worldwide, I can't see Microsoft winning this war, unless they fix their boxes and fast. Even that might not be enough, because of the juggernaut breathing down their neck.

The little, unassuming, underestimated box with the funny name from Nintendo, the juggernaut known as the Wii, is in second place currently. No one expected it to do this well. Everyone said it couldn't do this well, and was probably a fad. 7 months after launch with almost 9 million units sold and still not being able to walk into a store and pick one off the shelf is not a fad. The Wii isn't what you'd call powerful, it's saddled with an unfair "family-friendly" rep, it's got a control scheme that is highly unusual, and outside of first-party franchises, doesn't have a particularly solid software lineup. So why is the Wii hurtling towards the top of the heap?

It's the fun factor, stupid. The Wii is fun. That highly unusual control scheme? It's also highly intuitive, and feels like play. Pressing buttons and twirling a joystick makes sense to gamers, but not to ordinary Joes, and it doesn't feel like play. Playing Wii Sports feels like play, and the action of swinging the Wiimote makes sense, even outside the context of the game. Unless Nintendo reps release a statement saying everyone at the company eats babies and puppies while raping their mothers and daughters, I feel confident saying that Nintendo is going to take the top spot in this war eventually. They'll certainly win out over Sony.

What can I say about Sony and the PS3? They rode a wave of stupidity that is crashing onto jagged rocks. Bad design decisions, bad marketing decisions, bad licensing decisions, bad PR decisions, just bad all around.They're not getting any better, either. Just recently they announced that their production is now at full capacity. That's right, no more PS3 shortages. Um, what? So Sony's now churning out almost 1 million units per month. They're only selling 300k. Last I checked, that's called a surplus. A big one. A surplus that big can only mean one thing: price drop.

Sony needs to cut the price of the PS3 to $500, as soon as possible. And they need to do it before MS cuts the price of the 360. If they could, they should cut it to $400, but I'm not sure they can even handle a $100 price cut, let alone $200. The sales of the PS3 are pathetic, and they're not going to get better. Yeah, GTA4 is coming out, so what? MS has GTA4, too, and they've also got Halo 3. If a PS3 cost $400, I'd buy one. I'm sure quite a few other people would, too. I don't think there's anything Sony can do to dig themselves out of the number 3 hole, but they look like major league jackasses right now. MS does, too, but that's beside the point. Sony needs to suck it up and take it on the chin.

THIS JUST IN: In the time between when I started this post as a draft and when I actually finished it, two things have happened.

One, MS announced that the warranty period for the RRoD (that's Red Ring of Death) has been retroactively extended for 3 years. So anyone who's bought a 360 in the past that's died from the RRoD will get their box fixed for free up to 3 years after the time of purchase, and anyone who buys a 360 in the future will have that handy 3 year warranty to protect against RRoD brickings. They still didn't admit that there's a problem with the 360, however. Here's what my friend and yours, Peter Moore, said: "Good service and a good customer experience are areas of the business that we care deeply about. And frankly, we've not been doing a good enough job. We are taking responsibility and are making these changes to ensure that every Xbox 360 owner continues to have a great experience." When I first heard about this, I figured the reason they were doing it was because it's more cost effective to eat the warranty repairs and (not) refund previously out of warranty repair costs to the customer than to actually fix the problem. But then I read the bit about MS taking "a $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion pre-tax charge to its earnings for the quarter ended June 30." Know what that means? I'll let Bill Harris of Dubious Quality break down the analysis.

Essentially, Microsoft is reserving $100 for every console that's been sold since the system launched. I know--that's for future warranty extension as well--but it seems reasonable that Microsoft wouldn't be doing this unless they'd solved the problem. So the vast majority of the $1B charge is for existing consoles.

So that's 11 million consoles at $100 per=$1.1 billion.

Makes sense, right? They fix the problem in the new boxes, and allow for repairs on the old boxes. Plus, they turn a PR nightmare into warm fuzzies. Fucking assholes. They're still not going to win, though.

Two, Sony hasn't announced a price cut. Somebody leaked it. Sony finally does something right with regards to the PS3, and they got their thunder stolen. That's fucking hilarious. 100 bucks is a good start. Here's what I think's going to happen. Sony officially announces the price cut in the next few days. Next week at their E3 press conference, Microsoft announces they're lowering the price of the Elite to $400. Later this year, just in time for holiday buying, Sony announces they're cutting the price another $100, down to $400. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but it's the only thing that makes sense if Sony wants to make any sort of showing this round at all.