Number 2 isn't as bad as you think

Rumors continue to swirl around Nintendo's next-gen console, code-named Revolution. We know what the controller and the unit itself will look like, but not much else. It might be twice as powerful as the Gamecube; it might use standard DVD5's and DVD9's as its medium; it might have free downloadable first party retro titles and pay-for-play third party retro titles; it might sell for $150 or less at launch; it might have free, wireless online play; it might have new games that sell for $50; it might come out in time for Christmas in 2006.

We just don't know for sure. Even if half those rumors are true, or have some bit of truth to them (especially the launch price), I think Nintendo stands a very good chance of coming in at a solid #2 in the console wars this time around. And #2 is not a bad place to be, especially for Nintendo right now.

I've said this before, but if Nintendo is in last place this time around, they're done as a hardware developer. It happened to Sega, and it'll happen to Nintendo. I really don't want to see that happen, since I think Nintendo has some truely interesting ideas, and I've been a fan or theirs since I was 5. But the console market only has room for two consoles, not 3.

I think Microsoft will come out on top, regardless of what I consider a very poor launch (though the general consensus seems to be "best launch ever"), for a number of reasons. They launched the 360 at least 6 months (probably closer to a year) before anyone else will launch their next-gen offerings, they've got (I believe) the most powerful console, they've got a solid list of upcoming titles, and they have a strong, consistent vision for the direction and purpose of their console. That last bit is something Sony is sorely lacking.

Which is why I think Sony is dead last. It takes balls to predict a turnaround from first to worst, but I got balls like you wouldn't believe. Sony would like us to think the PS3 will hit Spring 2006, but from what I've read, they're not even close to Spring 2006, and I would be surprised if they managed to launch next year at all. Scratch that, I think they'll bust their asses to launch at Christmas 2006, but it will be a huge mistake. There were manufacturing shortages of the 360, and it was actually ready to launch. If Sony tries to bring out the PS3 next winter, not only will there be shortages, the first generation of hardware will have serious issues (anyone remember the first generation of the PS1 having a heatsink that didn't work? I do). Not only that, but what compelling reasons are there to buy a PS3? Blu-ray? I can buy a standalone player if Blu-ray actually becomes the dominant format. Games? Sony has an exclusive with MGS4, but I stopped caring about the MGS games after the travesty that was MGS2. Sony also has Gran Turismo, which Forza Motorsport put to shame. And the Grand Theft Auto games eventually came to Xbox. Controller design? I don't need a fucking Batarang, thanks.

The way I see it, there's no reason for Nintendo not to end up in second place.